Biweekly Market Recap 4/28/2018

Q1 summary data

Q1 data confirms the expectation that it is a soft patch and market is waiting for the rebound (consumer/retail sale)

PMI has a steady number this month, the details looks good. Although the PMI seems not flash a lot, the momentum is coming down, but the level is higher than 50 and it is still positive.

United States Composite PMI

CapEx looks a negative sign. I am looking for 5-7, but we only get 3 this quarter. One of the things is the trade dispute we had and it made a stronger effect on the CapEx.

We have to get more data from US and EU next week, the core GDP of EU and inflation of US. We are looking for the Fed to take the data and start to plan further.

Trade war no longer has market impact. The magnitude of the trading tariff is too small <1% on GDP growth and little on trading volume between US and China. Unless there is a big surprising news deteriorating the situation.

Conclusion for this week: two step forward and one step back.




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