Market Recap 2018/11/28


Expect 2-3 hikes in 2019

Few believe the leveraged loans today would set off a crisis, since they focus on a smaller part of the economy rather than sprawling the housing mkt in 2008

The total leverage loan market is now doubled what is was in 2008, around 59% of them are junk loans.

Central bank has been paying attention to elevated loans this year. Powell said: we have our eyes on that.

Mnuchin inquires about whether fed could tighten policy by accelerating its balance sheeting shrinkage process rather than raising rates.

Trade war:

Trump and Xi agree to refrain from implementing incremental tariff for a brief period during which time the negotiations will take place.

Outlook 2019

US strength vs. rest-of-world sluggishness

Macro policy support vs. geopolitical drags

Robust corporate profits vs. modest capes growth

Rising DM wage inflation vs. flat CPI Phillips curve

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