Two rate cut this year half, driven by slower growth(trade war) and low inflation.

Revise GDP growth to 1.2-1.5%

The market rationale expect to ease the trade tension which everyone does except Trump. So there is a miscalculation risk if trump behavior irrational.

Asset allocation suggestion:

A股还是在历史低位,易主席又发话了。我个人还是愿意OW A股,看好中长期。(便宜还是硬道理的)

考虑到贸易战,UW EM currency, OW JPY and Gold这种风险对冲产品。美股和各类还是不要买了,特别是会受贸易战影响的。更何况现在美股太贵了。

总结:我会多配一点A股,配JPY and Gold。

其他想法:下半年降息,有没有什么行业收益于加息同时不怎么受贸易战影响的?

另外,模型显示明年有40%可能性衰退,要不要配置一点抗衰退的产品?不过衰退几率最好再看下下半年表现,到时候会有更好的估计。

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