Following the swiftest-ever reversal tighter in Credit spreads and higher in Equity prices, markets have made much headway since earnings season began ten days ago. Is there a valuation problem with corporate assets that price too quick a return to normalcy after the most unusual recession in history? (Commodities and EM FX ex Asia certainly convey little optimism). The turn in Credit and Equities in March didn’t look premature to us then given factors that had converged, but the magnitude of moves over the past month deserves scrutiny. Credit and Equities both appear to be overshooting markets’ tendency to rally before a recession has ended. Gains are easier to accept for Credit given Fed buying, and in US Equities given Tech’s role post COVID-19.
