My tech blog about finance, math, CS and other interesting stuff
美联储放水，资金涌进优质资产（目前也就美股和credit了。。。）portfolio从growth往value转，两者导致美股上扬，有点不合逻辑但是也没办法。 之后美联储打光子弹之后时常会怎么走呢？crash么？cash？黄金怎么动？ 目前企业和个人的leverage都比较高，如果这种pre spending可以compensate by future rebound，那就是个很好的策略，如果不可以的话，那就会引起市场的concern 和 crash。 比如周四，因为美国reopen导致很多州的疫情反复，市场有concern。
感受一下之前买sds，后来没出行情，还在bleeding，因为那时候hedge我觉得用put就够了，不要用etf太贵。不过后来当市场有疫情的征兆，结合中国的经验，确实有可能是catalyst，就应该更坚定的调仓，然后hedge.
Following the swiftest-ever reversal tighter in Credit spreads and higher in Equity prices, markets have made much headway since earnings season began ten days ago. Is there a valuation problem with corporate assets that price too quick a return to normalcy after the most unusual recession in history? (Commodities and EM FX ex Asia certainly […]
Recommendation System we called is a very NARROW concept: A system that predicts ratings or preferences a user might give to an item. Rather than a machine learning algo that solve general recommendation problem. Recommendation signal: YouTube use the minutes you watch heavily in their recommend system. Metrics to evaluate the recommendation system RMSE, MSE, […]
S&P rebound to 2800 today, reopen the bull market position… The implied vol still very high, options are expensive still. Oil cut doesn’t drive the energy sector up a lot and I feel the long term concern on economy still exist… Feel hard to position the market right now… Keep wealthfront low risk exposure.. Alpha […]
Lessons: Since outbreak of coronavirus in China, I should buy online streaming/face mask stocks in US, to hedge the risk. I should purchase put to hedge the risk I under estimate the severeness of coronavirus and the fear of virus by human nature. I also suffer great losses from AMRN and Energy ETF, one common […]
First recap after 2020 rebalance. AMRN and Energy ETF suffer from significant loss AMRN: TBD, looks like we just need to hold it for the long run. Energy ETF, strong believe that it will bounce back, given a huge gap between energy price and the performance of energy ETF. Gold and Silver, light position, for […]
2019 Market Performance: Most markets are ending with returns above, in some cases, two times above their long-term average. Driven by Very low market baseline @ 2018 year end The market overstated recession risk in 2019 which drag down the market a lot. Extraordinary broad monetary easing this year One year ago (2018 Dec.) that […]
Original News: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/bond-king-doubleline-founder-ceo-163202324.html My Transcript: Review 2019 market, and the driver in 2020? All asset classes are strong, gold, stock, bond, bitcoin, but it came from a very low baseline, a deep dent in 2018 year end. In a broader context, market is turning around: 10 year yield is 2%, S&P/DJ at peak but other […]
